Lamar Jackson has been lighting up the National Football League this year. His Ravens sit atop the AFC right now, and have some very nice wins under their belt: New England (37-20), San Francisco (20-17), Seattle (30-16), and Houston (41-7). 3 of those teams are division leaders, and the one that isn't is San Francisco, who is tied with Seattle for the division lead based on record and is out on a tiebreaker.
This Ravens team has been blasting through the NFL, and they have been led by true dual-threat Quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Jackson is 62 yards shy of breaking Michael Vicks single-season Quarterback rushing record, and could very easily do that this week as he is averaging 81.4 yards on the ground per game. Jackson would need to average 15.8 in his last four games in order to pass Vick, which is not very hard for anyone who has watched Jackson this year to think that he can achieve that. Along with his 977 yards rushing, Jackson has a 2532 yards through the air so far this season. That's only on pace for 3376 yards through the air, but Baltimore has 2494 yards combined on the ground this year. That averages out to 207.8 yards per game. That is best in the NFL this year. The next closest team is San Francisco with 1776 (-718) yards on the ground, and that works to an average of 148.0 (-59.8). Baltimore is controlling the ground when they play, and it's not even close. Jackson has even been leading the ground game for the Ravens, edging out Mark Ingram II by a total of 140 yards on the year to date. The state that I love the most for a quarterback though, is the Quarterback Passer Rating. In 2019 so far, Jackson has a 109.6 QBR, in terms of active starting QBs in the NFL, which ranks 4th, following Ryan Tannehill (113.9), Kirk Cousins (111.9), and Russell Wilson (111.1). Jackson is one of the best Quarterbacks statistically this year in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback, and he is a human highlight reel, but how long can this last?
My concern arises from the history of play from Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, and Nick Foles
Patrick Mahomes had a break out year in 2018. Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs to a 12-4 record and a loss in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. Mahomes was a relatively unknown going into that season. He held a clipboard for much of the 2017 season, but when he got his chance to shine, he did. Mahomes was second in passing yards at 5097, only trailing Ben Roethlisberger (5129, +32), and doing this in his first full season as a starter. Mahomes was second in QBR that year, posting a 113.8 in that category, trailing only Drew Brees (115.7). Mahomes lit up the scoreboard passing for a league-high that year of 50 TD passes. When looking at 2019, Mahomes has fallen to a pace of 4176 yards, that pace includes missing 2 games due to injury, but extrapolation puts a 16 game average for Mahomes to 4772.8, which is not far off from his 2018 campaign, but still not as good. The most telling stat for Mahomes is his winning percentage. in 2018, he posted a .750 (12-4) win percentage, which is great for an NFL quarterback, but that has fallen to .700 (7-3). Which isn't much. Mahomes has been perceived to have dropped off, but has he really?
Let's turn our gaze to Cam Newton. Cam Newton won the NFL's MVP award in 2015, leading his Carolina Panthers to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance against the Peyton Manning and Von Miller lead Denver Broncos. That year, Newton posted his career-best QBR at 99.4. Newton didn't post huge yardage, contributing 3837 yards in 16 games that season. He only turned the ball over 14 times (which is still high for someone who was supposed to be a superstar quarterback). Newton also posted a career-high in TDs, through 35 that season, averaging 2.2 per game. These are great numbers. When looking at the rest of Newton's career is not terrible either. When looking at his QBR for the rest of his career, Newton has posted an 84.2, which is not the best, but is not terrible. This is a QBR that a quarterback could lead a team to the Super Bowl with if he had the cast around him, and in Newton's standout year, he was 15.2 QBR points better. This is enough to reach 100, which is a great year, but not usually near the top of the league. In 2015, Cam Newton's QBR would rank only eighth among regular starters that season. That's low in the upper level of quarterbacks in the most telling stat of the position (in my mind at least). Was Newton even great to begin with?
Nick Foles, was he ever really good? Nick Foles has only had one good year of note, that being the 2017 season and the following playoffs. Foles really has not been a good quarterback over the long haul, but can be great in the short term. When looking at Foles's stats in the 2017 regular season, Foles started only 3 games to end the regular season. In three starts and one relief game for the injured Carson Wentz, Foles posted a 76.9 QBR, in that was 2 INTs to only 5 TDs in that stretch. Numbers are not that spectacular, but the playoffs were another story. Foles posted a 115.7 QBR, a 6:1 Touchdown-to-Interception ratio, and averaged 323.7 in the playoffs through the air, that includes a 373 yard, 3 TD and 1 INT game in the Super Bowl to bring home the Super Bowl MVP award, but this was a small stretch, and Foles's numbers over the rest of his career. Foles averages 18.0/29.3 (61.6%), 206.8 yards, 1.3 TDs, 0.6 INTs, and an 88.5 QBR. Not bad numbers, but not the best either. Foles really wasn't a one-hit-wonder.
When comparing Mahomes, Newton, and Foles's "one-hit-wonder" seasons to themselves, they really don't stand out that largely. Was it just perception? I say yes. Will Jackson be a one-hit wonder, I say no, but we will think so because we will get used to the wonder that is Lamar Jackson.
La Cheeserie, Littles
Fight On, Sleepers
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